Win Rate vs R:R Matrix
Every cell shows your expectancy per trade. Green = profitable long-term. Red = losing money no matter how disciplined you are.
How to read this: Find your win rate on the horizontal axis and your average R:R on the vertical axis. The cell where they meet shows your expectancy — how much you earn per $1 risked, on average. +0.5R means you gain $50 for every $100 risked over time. −0.3R means you lose $30 per $100 risked — no strategy will save you.
Formula: Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). Loss is always normalized to 1R.
Your Strategy
Solid win rate — even moderate R:R works
Good R:R — gives you margin for lower win rate
Your Expectancy
Expectancy Heatmap
The Win Rate Trap
A 70% win rate sounds impressive — but if your average loss is 3× bigger than your average win, you lose money. R:R is more important than win rate.
The Break-Even Diagonal
The yellow cells form a diagonal line. This is the break-even frontier. Every combination on it earns nothing. You need to be above it to survive long-term.
The Professional Zone
Most full-time traders operate between 40–55% win rate with 1.5:1–3:1 R:R. Boring? Yes. Sustainably profitable? Also yes.
Why Most Traders Think About This Wrong
Beginners fixate on win rate. They want to be "right" most of the time. But trading isn't a test — it's a business. The only metric that matters is: does your strategy make money over a large sample of trades?
That's what expectancy measures. It strips away all the noise — the hot streaks, the bad days, the lucky trades — and tells you what your strategy actually earns per unit of risk. A positive expectancy means the edge is real. A negative expectancy means no amount of discipline, psychology work, or risk management will save you.
The matrix above shows every possible combination. Notice how the green zone covers a wide diagonal band — there are many paths to profitability. A scalper with 70% win rate and 0.75:1 R:R is in the same green band as a swing trader with 35% win rate and 3:1 R:R. Different styles, same math.
The red zone is unforgiving. Once you're there, no trick saves you. If you recognize your numbers in the red, the fix is one of two things: improve your entries (win rate) or improve your exits (R:R). Usually improving R:R is easier — it doesn't require you to be more "right," just more patient with winners and faster with losers.
Don't know your win rate or R:R? That's exactly why a trading journal exists. After 30–50 logged trades, you'll have statistically meaningful numbers — and you'll be able to find your exact cell in this matrix.
Risk of Ruin Calculator →
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Lot Size Calculator →
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